Author: Adaptación

  • Climate risks: how to estimate them and with which approach

    Climate risks: how to estimate them and with which approach

    When we think about traveling, one of the first decisions we make is how we are going to get around. Will we do it walking, with a bicycle, by public or private transport? The decision, if we have multiple options, will depend mainly on the conditions and needs of our trip, rather than whether one vehicle is better than the other.

    Similarly, the selection of which methodology to use for a climate risk analysis in an adaptation planning process will depend on the objective of the assessment, its scope, the sector it is aimed at, and the needs of the process itself.

    Today, we face one of the most pressing challenges of our era: climate change. The risks associated with climate are increasingly evident and their impact is being felt on a global, national and local scale. The need to identify, understand and estimate these risks is key to managing them.

    Climate threats are inherent to the earth’s existence, but they are also exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming. Risk arises from the coexistence between society and the natural environment. This coexistence, when out of balance, generates a space where populations and assets are exposed to climate threats, while social, economic, cultural and political factors generate conditions that make society vulnerable to their impacts. In this way, risk results from the dynamic interaction between threats, exposure and vulnerability.

    The estimation of climate risks includes the assessment of threats from extreme weather events, changes in weather patterns, and sea level rise. To achieve this, climate models are used to predict possible scenarios, from floods to droughts. Additionally, the possible adverse consequences on ecological and human systems must be evaluated [1]. Climate risk analyses, therefore, allow us to identify threats associated with climate, the degree of exposure of the system and the vulnerability factors. This information is essential to anticipate, reduce and minimize adverse consequences.

    There are various approaches and methodologies to estimate climate risks. On the one hand, deterministic approaches make assumptions about the relationships between the factors that describe the risk, so that they “predict” system behavior given certain conditions. On the other hand, probabilistic approaches associate statistical probabilities to the behaviors of the system, presented at random and, therefore, have an associated degree of uncertainty.

    DeterministicProbabilisticQualitative
    a. Global Circulation Models (GCM)
    b. Development of Climate Scenarios
    c. Historical Data Analysis
    d. Hydrological model
    e. Vulnerability
    f. AssessmentSocioeconomic impact analysis
    g. Climate Risk Maps
    a. Montecarlo analysis
    b. Bayesian Risk Analysis
    c. Advanced Statistical Models
    d. Re
    e. Cadenas de Markov
    f. Simulaciones Estocásticas
    g. Modelos de Eventos Extremos
    h. Funciones de Distribución Acumulativa (FDA)
    i. Enfoques de Incertidumbre Paramétrica
    a. Investigación participativaMapeo
    b. participativo Técnicas de
    c. valoración cualitativa

    In the deterministic approach, climate models such as Global Circulation (GCM) and Regional Models (RCM) are used to predict climate patterns at a global or regional level. Historical data analysis, which analyzes past climate records to project possible future risks, and Climate Scenario Analysis, which represents different possible trajectories of climate change, are also used. 

    Complementarily, the vulnerability assessment examines the susceptibility of natural and human systems to climate changes, while the development of socioeconomic scenarios makes it possible to evaluate how climate changes will affect specific communities, economies and sectors. Hydrological models are particularly useful for predicting behavior in watersheds under changes in variables (for example, precipitation). Finally, climate risk maps help visualize areas exposed to extreme weather events. 

    The probabilistic approach can help understand the probability of occurrence of extreme events and their possible impacts. Some of the methodologies used in risk analysis are the Monte Carlo Analysis, which uses computer simulations to evaluate possible climate scenarios and their consequences. Bayesian Risk Analysis applies Bayesian theory to update the probabilities of extreme weather events as new data is obtained. Advanced statistical models use probability distributions to represent the variability and uncertainty associated with extreme climate events. 

    In addition, other methodologies such as the return period, Markov chains, stochastic simulations, extreme event models and cumulative distribution functions are methodological alternatives to understand the probability and magnitude of extreme climate events. However, it is important to consider uncertainty in climate models and evaluate how it affects climate risk projections. 

    The application of these probabilistic methodologies improves the ability of researchers and decision makers to understand and quantify climate risks, considering the variability and uncertainty associated with climate change. 

    Often, quantitative information does not exist or is not accessible and, in other cases, it is not possible to establish a direct link between climate threats and their impacts. For this reason, qualitative alternatives are frequently used, such as participatory research, participatory mapping or qualitative assessment techniques. This participatory approach involves multiple actors in climate risk assessments and integrates local knowledge and experiences, improving the understanding and effectiveness of adaptation measures. 

    Determining the “best” methodology for climate risk assessment becomes a balancing exercise between various factors. The intrinsic complexity of climate change demands integrated approaches that address the interconnectedness of climatic, social, economic, cultural, political and regulatory factors, just to name a few. 

    The methodologies presented, some of the most common, offer valuable tools to describe the relationships between the factors that make up the risk, understand the probability and magnitude of extreme climate events, and evaluate their impact on communities and ecosystems. However, there is no single methodology that can comprehensively address the diversity of challenges associated with climate risks. 

    The choice and combination between these methodologies should be guided by the specific nature of the analysis, the resources available and the objectives pursued. Each approach has advantages and limitations, and will be more relevant in one case or another. Complementarity between approaches can enrich assessments, providing a more robust understanding of risks. 

    Ultimately, the search for the optimal methodology must go hand in hand with an adaptive and flexible approach, capable of evolving as our understanding of climate change and its impacts develops. The task is urgent, but we can build solid strategies to understand and manage the risks generated by climate change. 

    [1] ‘Reisinger, Andy, Mark Howden, Carolina Vera, et al. (2020) The Concept of Risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: A Summary of Cross-Working Group Discussions. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland. pp15. Consultado 18 Enero 2024 de https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/02/Risk-guidance-FINAL_15Feb2021.pdf

  • Five practical strategies for private sector engagement in climate change adaptation

    Five practical strategies for private sector engagement in climate change adaptation

    According to the World Economic Forum, climate change adaptation is a market close to $2 trillion[1]. For this reason, the private sector can find a great opportunity in adaptation, not only reducing costs, but increasing productivity and improving its competitiveness. It is a strategic advantage that strengthens the value chain, benefits relationships with stakeholders and brings multiple opportunities.

    This involvement can come from various mechanisms, not only through financing. This article presents some practical strategies that companies can implement to boost climate resilience.

    The first line of defence against the impacts of climate change is knowledge. The awareness of the company’s staff and suppliers plays an important role. It is crucial to train teams and external contractors in understanding sector-specific climate risks and managing impacts according to the location of the facilities and the resources or ecosystem services on which they depend. This not only strengthens internal resilience, but creates an organizational culture focused on sustainability. Thus, awareness programs, training sessions and educational tools can be implemented to foster staff understanding and participation in adaptation initiatives.

    Companies can innovate their business models to adapt to changing climate realities. This may include diversifying the supply chain, incorporating more resilient agricultural practices, or developing products and services that address the needs of communities affected by extreme weather events. Supporting ventures or start-ups that develop innovative climate solutions through investments, strategic partnerships or acceleration programs also contributes to this goal. This way, companies can leverage the creativity and agility of startups to address specific challenges related to climate change adaptation. By aligning business interests with climate resilience, companies not only protect themselves, but also contribute to the well-being of the communities in which they operate.

    The private sector can maximize its impact by targeting, directing and encouraging investments towards communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It should be noted that this not only implies financial contributions, but also the development of programs that strengthen local infrastructure, emergency response capacity and education on climate risks, which will benefit the relationship of companies with these communities and, moreover, will improve business reputation. Companies can leverage their resources and experiences to improve the adaptive capacity of communities, building strong alliances and creating an environment conducive to sustainable and inclusive development.

    Aligning with specific standards or obtaining climate resilience certifications is a significant step for companies to demonstrate their commitment to adaptation in a transparent way. Examples of this are internationally recognized certifications, such as ISO 14090 (Adaptation to Climate Change) or ISO 14001 (Environmental Management), and standards such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). Embracing and implementing the guidelines of these standards helps establish clear parameters and improves the credibility of companies in terms of sustainability and resilience.

    Finally, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) stand out as a valuable alternative to address the challenges of climate change. Companies can explore integrating NbS into their business strategies, strengthening their adaptation through initiatives such as ecosystem restoration, sustainable forest management, integrated watershed management and the promotion of regenerative agricultural practices. This way, by collaborating with experts in multiple disciplines and drawing on the knowledge of local communities, companies can strengthen their own operations and contribute to a more resilient future without abandoning their competitiveness.

    Many companies already invest in adaptation inadvertently when, for example, they implement measures to prevent or minimize economic losses associated with floods or droughts, among other factors that threaten their productivity. However, according to the Adaptation Gap Report 2023, estimated adaptation needs (between $160 billion and $340 billion by 2030) are five to ten times higher than international adaptation finance flows.

    In this context, there is a great opportunity to increase the intentional, planned and effective participation of companies to adapt to the present and future challenges of climate change, with benefits for the sector itself, society and nature.

    References:

    [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/climate-change-climate-adaptation-private-sector/

  • Resilient Coastal Caribbean Cities: 3 strategies to integrate NbS in urban planning and development

    Resilient Coastal Caribbean Cities: 3 strategies to integrate NbS in urban planning and development

    The Caribbean faces disproportionate impacts from climate change, with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, sea-level rise, and extreme events causing extensive human, natural, and economic losses.

    The multi-dimensional vulnerability of the insular Caribbean is exacerbated by limited economic diversification and remoteness1. Urban settlements are highly concentrated along coasts and suffer heightened exposure due to inadequate planning and development2. However, coastal cities also represent fertile ground for scaling up solutions that can positively impact the population and the environment.

    Nature-based Solutions (NbS) involve actively conserving, restoring and managing ecosystems, offering benefits for cities, including climate adaptation, food security, and livelihood opportunities3. To encourage the widespread uptake of NbS in coastal cities of Caribbean islands, it is key to mainstream them into urban planning and development. This climate capsule highlights 3 strategies to do so.

    1. Promote a supportive regulatory framework for NbS

    Carefully designed and implemented national policy instruments and local regulations can be powerful catalysts for NbS. For instance, Cuba’s State Plan to Confront Climate Change “Tarea Vida” takes a proactive stance to regulate the population density and infrastructure concepts in coastal settlements facing high flood risks. Considering that 27% of the urban population is located on fragile ecosystems4, the plan emphasizes on integrating Nature-based Solutions, such as beach, mangrove, and coral reef restoration, into urban planning processes.

    At the local level, the Kingston and St. Andrew’sMunicipal Development Order mandates urban development activities to consider adaptation solutions. The Order promotes natural rainwater management, green infrastructure, and the preservation of watershed areas, reefs, and wetlands to strengthen the cities’ resilience. This instrument is used by municipal and sectoral authorities as well as developers and communities.

    • From the academy: generate and share information to influence decision-making in urban planning and development processes in coastal areas (e.g., research on climate risks and NbS cost-effectiveness).
    • From civil society: participate in urban planning and Integrated Coastal Zone Management processes to promote the inclusion of NbS for adaptation.
    • From local governments and developers: revise building codes and zoning regulations to favor adaptive capacity of coastal communities and investment in NbS.

    2. Build the technical capacities of local actors

    Effective integration of NbS into planning requires trained actors and institutions who can understand climate scenarios and vulnerability assessments, assess adaptation strategies, bring stakeholders together and manage the rollout of initiatives5.

    As part of the CityAdapt and the Nature4Cities projects, the Caribbean cities of Kingston (Jamaica) and Manzanillo (Cuba) are building the capacity of local actors to integrate NbS into urban planning and development. For example, a climate risk assessment of Kingston and St. Andrew, in Jamaica, identified that the island’s capital was both affected by flooding and inconsistent water supply. Local authorities were capacitated by the project to take a hybrid approach, integrating ecosystems restoration, permeable pavements and sustainable water storage to increase infiltration, reduce flooding and improve water security; this training is now being institutionalized within the University of the West Indies (UWI), the Jamaican University of Technology and the Management Institute of National Development, as well as the Caribbean Centre for Development Administration.

    On the other hand, the project “Mi Costa” in Cuba will benefit more than one million people in seven coastal settlements in southern Cuba and 24 municipalities, including Manzanillo. The project proposes the creation of a Capacity Building Center in each municipality to train local governments and communities with tools to face the deterioration of the coastline and future climate change scenarios. These centres include bibliographic, technological and other resources that will benefit the teaching and learning process in the short and long term6.

    • From local governments or the private sector: roll capacity building programs for your teams to be able to design, evaluate and implement NbS in coastal cities.
    • From the academy and civil society: promote the integration of climate adaptation and NbS approaches in formal and informal education programs (e.g., engineering, financing, administration and law)

    3. Manage trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term benefits

    Integrating NbS in urban planning and development involves taking a landscape-level approach that has implications on lands with different ownership and tenure, in which high opportunity costs in the short term could diminish the buy-in of local actors. In Jamaica, for instance, some local actors expressed lack of interest in integrating NbS arguing the lack of short-term benefits.

    In this context, managing the trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term benefits is essential. In addition to raising awareness, financing strategies could be used for this purpose. For example, Nature4Cities in Manzanillo supports the local government to define innovative financial mechanisms for NbS.

    • From national and subnational governments: create incentives for homeowners and businesses to adopt NbS, for example, by decreasing property taxes or insurance costs.
    • From the private sector: transform business models within the tourism and fishing sectors to sustainably manage coastal and marine ecosystems. This will enhance the long-term viability of businesses in cities that must adapt to climate change.
    • From civil society: champion the implementation of locally led NbS. For example, promoting locally and sustainably managed marine and coastal ecosystems that deliver benefits for food security and livelihoods opportunities.

    By integrating Nature-based Solutions into urban planning and development, coastal Caribbean cities can embark on a more resilient and nature-positive trajectory. Everyone can take action to build supportive policies, enhance local capacities, and find innovative ways to manage trade-offs.

    References

    1 United Nations Barbados and the OECS, 2020. Vulnerability of Eastern Caribbean Countries.

    2 Mycoo, M., M. Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O. Warrick, 2022: Small Islands. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2043–2121, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.017. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-15/

    3 PNUMA (2022). Las Soluciones basadas en la Naturaleza (SbN) en ciudades latinoamericanas: De medidas piloto a la integración en la planificación.

    4IUCN, 2014. Lineamientos para la transversalización del tema de género en los esfuerzos por mitigar y adaptarse al cambio climático en Cuba. 

    5 UNEP (2022). Harnessing Nature for Climate Resilience.

    6 Hidalgo Rodríguez, A. (2023, February 28). Granma: Una provincia empoderada y consciente del proyecto mi costa. La Demajagua. https://lademajagua.cu/granma-una-provincia-empoderada-consciente-del-proyecto-costa/

  • The fundamental role of indigenous women for Ecosystem-based Adaptation

    The fundamental role of indigenous women for Ecosystem-based Adaptation

    In a world experiencing a climate crisis, adaptation becomes a pressing need for the survival of communities and the preservation of ecosystems. In this context, indigenous women emerge as key actors in the construction of Nature-based Solutions and ancestral heritage. The Chaco region in Paraguay concentrates almost half of the country’s indigenous population, who live mainly from subsistence agriculture, simple livestock systems, non-timber products, beekeeping and small-scale hunting. The poor quantity, quality and continuity of water is a limiting factor for the well-being of these communities and the development of their livelihoods.

    One of the fundamental pillars of indigenous ecological management is the spiritual connection with nature. As part of the vision of the indigenous communities of Chaco, ecosystems are considered to house spirits that can influence the local climate. Indigenous women, as caretakers of culture and spirituality, play an essential role in preserving these beliefs and promoting ecosystem conservation. Their leadership in ceremonial activities and the transmission of these practices to new generations strengthens the link between spirituality and the sustainable management of ecosystems.

    Indigenous communities often have their own governance structures that facilitate local responses to climate change. Indigenous women, as an integral part of these structures, can play significant roles in decision-making related to ecosystem management and climate adaptation. Their traditional knowledge and understanding of local dynamics are valuable resources for developing effective EbA strategies.

    It is of utmost importance to integrate indigenous traditional knowledge (ITC) in Ecosystem-based Adaptation. It is not simply about incorporating local environmental information into Western science, but rather understanding that ITC encompasses natural resource management, sociocultural structures, social norms, spiritual beliefs and historical experiences. Indigenous women, as guardians of this cultural wealth, are crucial for the effective implementation of EbA projects that respect and value this knowledge.

    Indigenous women also play a leading role in preserving cultural values that drive adaptation to climate change. These values, such as reciprocity, collectivity, balance and solidarity, have proven to be fundamental in existing adaptation strategies, such as agrobiodiversity conservation and livelihood diversification. Indigenous women, as bearers of these values, can lead the promotion of practices that strengthen the resilience of their communities.

    The EbA Chaco project works in collaboration with indigenous communities of the Paraguayan Chaco to reduce food vulnerability to the impacts of climate change through Ecosystem-based Adaptation. The project promotes the active participation of indigenous women and seeks to integrate traditional knowledge into effective adaptation strategies. In addition, it encourages the preservation of cultural values and relies on local governance structures that support adaptation to climate change in this region.

    In conclusion, indigenous women are active agents in building resilience in the Paraguayan Chaco. Recognizing their contributions and actively supporting them is essential to achieve an effective adaptation in harmony with the natural and cultural context.

    References

    • Chanza, N., & Musakwa, W. (2021). Indigenous practices of ecosystem management in a changing climate: Prospects for ecosystem-based adaptation. Environmental Science and Policy, 126, 142.
    • Data from Griffith University Provide New Insights into Climatology (The Role of Indigenous and Traditional Knowledge in Ecosystem-Based Adaptation: A Review of the Literature and Case Studies from the Pacific Islands). (2018, November 2). Science Letter, 715.
    • Indigenous Knowledge For Climate Adaptation. (2023, July 13). Rising Nepal, NA.
    • Walshe, R., & Argumedo, A. (2016). Ayni, ayllu, yanantin and chanincha: the cultural values enabling adaptation to climate change in communities of the Potato Park, in the Peruvian Andes. GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, 25(3), 166+.